Breaking Down: Tyson Jost – Wall hits the Rookie

Tyson Jost debuted in the NHL at the end of the lost season with a 6-game stint, also scoring his first pro goal. With two benchmarks out of the way we looked for him to be a solid part of the Avs youngerfaster movement and take the first steps towards showing what we saw at North Dakota and for Team Canada in 17-18. For several reasons we are left with more questions than answers after his rookie season.

Right off the bat Jost struggled with a hip flexor injury in pre-season. In veteran players this is usually a sign of not being in top shape but I don’t know what it said about the 19-year old in his first pro camp. He looked sharp in a handful of pre-season games but as the season began he didn’t look 100% and eventually the team shut him down for 5 weeks plus a conditioning stint in San Antonio. For all intents and purposes his season began in December but the delay didn’t ameliorate the effects of hitting the rookie wall which leads me to believe the wall has less to do with conditioning and more so with the escalation of play as the season progresses. It’s arbitrary, but take a look at his scoring by month:

Oct/Nov (7 games) – 1G/1A (0.29 PPG)
December (15 games) – 1G/2A (0.20 PPG)
January (10 games) – 1G/4A (0.50 PPG)
February (14 games) – 4G/3A (0.50 PPG)
March (15 games) – 3G (0.20 PPG)
April (10 games) – 2G/1A (0.30 PPG) both reg season & playoffs

Jost scored more than half his points in January and February in a little more than a third of his games played. It’s also worth noting that his last regular season assist happened against Vancouver on Feb 26th. Not sure how much to read into this but he cratered right after Nate MacKinnon returned to the lineup, going from playing with Compher and Mikko to a variety of linemates. Initially it was Bourque/Yak for a couple of games, then Kerfoot/Wilson and finally Andrighetto with either Kerf or JTC.

To develop an overall profile I’m going to look at his contributions both individually and on-ice as well as linemates to see what his rookie season looked like behind the numbers.

Legend: i – individual, CF – shot attempts for, xGF – expected goals for, G – goals, GF – goals for, P – points

iCF/CF – 0.24, 3rd on team
ixGF/xGF – 0.265, 7th on team

Jost is definitely shooty and his share of on-ice shot attempts is behind only Mack and Sven. That’s a good thing in theory but it didn’t lead to the production we might have liked. Strangely enough, his most common linemate JT Compher has similar issues. His share of quality generation wasn’t quite as high but that’s not as concerning and he’s right around Landy’s level there.

G/GF – 0.27, 7th on team
P/GF – 0.588, 10th on team

If a goal was scored when he was on the ice then 27% of the time he was the one scoring. This is a little low for his skillset but his most common linemates JTC/Kerf had shares quite a bit higher which could explain it. With more experience he should become more of a featured shooter and that will go up.

iCF/60 – 12.37, 5th on team
ixGF/60 – 0.48, 9th on team
G/ixGF – 1.00, 12th on team
iSh% – 6.9, 13th among forwards

This rack of stats paints a picture of a player that generates a nice volume of shots but again the quality isn’t where it needs to be and then you get the poor shooting percentage and goals per expected goals numbers. I like the shooting instincts here but the ability to develop higher quality chances and capitalize on them is what needs to develop next season and beyond. Looking at his shot locations 5v5 there is a nice volume of high danger chances from the slot but along with that a high amount of really low-percentage stuff from above the circles. It’s not a bad idea to shoot from anywhere but focusing your efforts on drawing closer, being a little choosy at times, could really jack up his production.

CF/60 – 51.58, 18th on team
xGF/60 – 1.81, 18th on team
GF/xGF – 0.978, 18th on team
On-ice Sh% – 6.5, 14th among forwards

These on-ice rates show the cracks in the armor of his team play. Poor shot generation and quality chance generation followed by poor shooting. When you have 3 rookies on the ice at once and all in a slump it’s tough to force a way out. In this case I don’t think the staff did enough to help Jost and the rest of the Frat Line out.

Jost’s most common linemates were Compher, Kerfoot, Wilson and Andrighetto. His on-ice rates were 1.77 for and 1.85 against per hour. Here’s how it played out with each:

Compher – 1.35 for, 1.73 against
Kerfoot – 1.99 for, 2.24 against
Wilson – 1.37 for, 1.71 against
Sven – 1.05 for, 3.16 against

Right away we can see that whatever was going on with Andrighetto didn’t work, so don’t do that. Defensively he was ok with JTC and Willie but that offense is rude. I didn’t include Carl Soderberg because they only played 38 minutes together but they were at 4.66 goals for per hour and 1.55 against. SSS but that’s quality and should be explored in my opinion. I think if the staff had the guts to go beyond using Carl with Nieto and Comeau last year we could have had a real 2nd line with scoring and everything by the time the playoffs rolled around.

 

What we’ve got here is a very young but solid winger that can drive a little offense if his instincts to shoot get better as the game slows down for him. He has some speed issues and whether that’s entirely just who he is or have something to do with his injury is unclear at this point. By the eye test it looked like he was late to the puck a lot last year in all situations, defensively, on the boards in the offensive zone, in the slot on the PP, you name it. If that can be overcome with some better training over the summer then I don’t see any reason why he can’t start out with more responsibility in October. Out of the 3 rookies plus Sven, Jost is the one that can benefit the most from veteran help offensively. Playing with someone that can create space should jack up his shooting percentage and quality generation. If you take his play in Jan/Feb at a half a point per game and turn that into a 40+ point 20 year old wing then we’re all laughing by mid-season.

 

 

Thanks to Natural Stat Trick and Corsica for the stats, Micah McCurdy for the shot location vizzy and SeaMill for grinding out our own derivatives.

 

earl06

Scoring LW, punchy climber for the Ardennes classics, spirit guide

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