Breaking Down: Avs/Stars, Game #68

Safe to say the Avs deadline moves were a little misguided. Since then they’ve gone 2-3-1 with zero regulation wins and have been outscored 19-10. They’re only 4 points out in 10th place right now but they won’t have the tiebreakers so that’s really 5 points out with 14 games left to go. If the Wild go 7-7 down the stretch the Avs need to be 9-4-1 at least and hope Arizona falls behind.

Projectile Lineup

Andrew Agozzino was called up from the Eagles again, trying to re-create some of the pre-deadline magic. Sheldon Dries sat out to accommodate. Big Z is out indefinitely with UBI and Ryan Graves returned to the lineup after a 5-game absence.

Scratch: Dries, Bourque, Zadorov (UBI), Barberio (LBI), Nieto (LBI)
Injured: Kamenev (shoulder)

Team Stats

The Avs did a good job of controlling play for the fist 25 minutes or so, save for a coverage breakdown on what appeared to be yet another poor line change. Early in the 2nd period the Stars ramped up physical play and gained some momentum that led to their 2nd goal of the night. Score effects took over and Colorado began to shoot in earnest to close out the frame. The 3rd started off with a big 12-2 Dallas run that allowed them to seal the deal with a third goal. Coach Bednar pulled Varly with over 4 minutes remaining then Alexander Radulov finished off his hat trick.

Tale of the tape at 5v5 was a +54/-50 but the evidence is damning in the 3rd period. The Avs went +9/-22 in attempts, +2/-9 in scoring chances and +1/-6 from high danger areas. That’s not how turtles are supposed to work. Game pace at 5v5 was a routine 120 shots per hour

Special teams weren’t a factor with the PP going 0-2 and the PK killing off their one chance.


Top 6 forwards at 5v5 were Mack, Mikko, Landy, Carl, Wilson, Brassard. Overall it was Mack (23:53), Mikko, Landy, Brassard, Carl, Compher (17:16). Aggz was low man at 7:38. Landy left the game after colliding with Ben Bishop late and didn’t return.

The defensive regime went EJ, Sam, Barrie, Cole then a big gap down to Nemeth and Graves. In all situations it was EJ (24), Barrie (24), Sam (21+), Cole (20), Nemeth (12+) and Graves (12).


There aren’t many positives to take away from this. If the Avs do end up being eliminated it won’t be for a while but for all intents and purposes they showed last night that they weren’t up to the task this year. They didn’t just come up short, they got blown out. Now, the injuries are piling up, the personnel moves made over the past week and a half have had a negative effect on the team’s play and the staff don’t have any answers. The best hope is they can find a way to salvage something positive over the next month for next season. If they play loose like they have nothing to lose then who knows what could happen.

Burgundy Narrative Metric

– “Best guys being your best guys” gets a (-) donuts
Quality vs Quantity gets a (-) quality and quantity were mediocre
– Power Play Watchability gets a (-) ineffective 1st unit strikes out again
The Dreaded Turtle gets a (-) Dallas couldn’t even turtle right
Starting Goalie Battle% gets a (-) not great but Varly mirrored the team in front of him
Referee Oppression Index gets a (+) Very laissez faire crew

Total: -5¾

Next up

Back home for a Saturday matinee vs Buffalo

Thanks as always to the NHL and Natural Stat Trick for numbers and visuals


Scoring LW, punchy climber for the Ardennes classics, spirit guide

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